Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 16.1 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 57.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 4.81 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling out backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been among the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 2.55 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards