Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-120) after it opened @ 19.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
- Mo Alie-Cox has accrued quite a few more receiving yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (20.0).
- Mo Alie-Cox’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 57.5% to 79.6%.
- Mo Alie-Cox’s pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 9.77 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.22 mark last year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Mo Alie-Cox has notched far fewer air yards this season (14.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
- Mo Alie-Cox’s 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 21.0.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
