Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-119).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-119) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Saints are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Chris Olave has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 58.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among wideouts
Chris Olave has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) vs. WRs this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 7.53 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards