THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.72 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.