Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has totaled far more air yards this year (123.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards