NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Devin Singletary has received 50.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 34.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
- Devin Singletary has run for substantially fewer yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (46.0).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 85 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
