Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to accrue 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among WRs.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack this season (18.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.3%).
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 142.0) versus WRs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, yielding 7.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
