Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Bills
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 296.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 296.5 (-110) after it opened @ 298.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot more yards per game (313.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 206.0 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 6.32 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards
271
Passing Yards
