Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 296.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 296.5 (-110) after it opened @ 298.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot more yards per game (313.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 206.0 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 6.32 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards