Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-118/-112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-112) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to garner 9.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 30.5% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has accrued a monstrous 100.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards