Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (+100) after it opened @ 30.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to earn 4.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- Irv Smith has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Irv Smith has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in just 59.8% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
- Irv Smith has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging just 5.80 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
