Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to notch 4.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 28.0 yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
- Robert Tonyan’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 70.8% to 89.9%.
- The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 8.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the league.
- The New York Jets linebackers project as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Robert Tonyan has been less involved as a potential target this season (53.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (66.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
