Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
- Tyler Conklin has run a route on 74.2% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accrue 4.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 34.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
