Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential target this season (91.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.9%).

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (57.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.88 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards