Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-125) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much smaller part of his team’s pass game this week (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (34.6% in games he has played).
CeeDee Lamb’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 58.6%.
CeeDee Lamb’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, notching just 7.32 yards-per-target vs a 9.37 figure last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (56.6%) to wide receivers this year (56.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards