Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 266.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 266.5 (-101) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 74.6%.
Geno Smith has been among the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.97 yards-per-target while ranking in the 84th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.7%).

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards