Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray from EV Insight

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-115) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kyler Murray has attempted 45.9 throws per game this year, grading out in the 97th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (264.0 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, allowing 9.50 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.

Cons

Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Kyler Murray’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.0% to 63.6%.
Kyler Murray’s passing effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling a measly 5.99 yards-per-target compared to a 7.61 rate last season.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards