Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-135) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 17.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has received 71.7% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 35.5% run rate.
Dalvin Cook has run for many fewer yards per game (72.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards