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Chris Meaney
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-114) after it opened @ 84.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to notch 10.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- Justin Jefferson has notched quite a few more receiving yards per game (106.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Justin Jefferson has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) to wideouts this year (62.7%).
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards
94
Receiving Yards
