Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-129) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.98 yards-per-carry.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in run blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
