Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 15.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.41 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the 4th-best DT corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards