Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darren Waller has put up quite a few less air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (86.0 per game).
Darren Waller’s 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 56.6.
Darren Waller has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.05 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards