WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Darren Waller has put up quite a few less air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (86.0 per game).
- Darren Waller’s 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 56.6.
- Darren Waller has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 20th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.05 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
