NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Week 5 of the NFL season got off to just about the most underwhelming start possible Thursday. We’ll put that behind us, though, and move on to the Sunday slate and some of my favorite bets of the Week 5 action.
As we get ready for a full day of games, I picked out some of my favorite individual player props for Week 5.
Jamaal Williams Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Jamaal Williams Over 15.5 Rush Attempts
Rushing yards: -110, BetMGM
Rush attempts: -114, FanDuel Sportsbook
Remember in last week’s Lions/Seahawks shootout, the Lions were trailing for a decent chunk of that second half and must have had an aggressive pass heavy gameplan, right? Wrong. The Lions posted a -9% pass rate over expectation, their lowest of the season. Despite dealing with a negative gamescript for a decent chunk of the game, the Lions’ plan was clearly to run early and often. This week they get a matchup against rookie Bailey Zappe, an opponent unlikely to put them in an uncomfortable game script.
I was having trouble deciding whether to bet rushing yards or attempts for Jamaal Williams, but I have him projected over both of these numbers. Without D’Andre Swift in the lineup, Williams has performed very well in the starting lineup. He’s posted lines of 19-108, 19-77 and 17-71, recording over 4.1 YPC in each matchup. Amon-Ra St. Brown is also likely to miss this matchup, taking away this team’s strongest weapon in the passing game.
Even beyond the Lions likely being forced into a run-heavy gamescript due to various injuries, that’s where you want to attack the Patriots anyway. They currently rank 10th in Football Outsiders DVOA vs. the pass, 32nd vs. the run. I’m still confused on why the Lions are three-point underdogs in this game, but whether the Lions can take an early lead or not, this game should always be in a situation where the Lions don’t need to abandon the run. While I expected Craig Reynolds and Justin Jackson to eat more into his volume last week, they only actually ended up vulturing 3 carries, meaning this is Williams’ backfield to control. I’m expecting the Hard Knocks star to have another impressive game on the ground.
Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions
-115, FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel is currently posting a much better number than market, and I look forward to taking advantage of that. Seeing Chris Godwin play 83% of snaps in his return was great news last week, proving he was actually ready to be back on the field. Godwin impressed, going 7-59 on 10 targets against the Chiefs, he ran 45 pass routes which was 2nd in the NFL. As we already know, the best way to slow down Brady is by pressuring him. Unfortunately for the Falcons they rank 30th in pressure rate this season, not good. I’m expecting Tom Brady to bounce back and absolutely destroy this Falcons defense, and I think there is room for this whole wide receiver room to perform.
After a disappointing start to the season for A.J. Terrell, he’s put up impressive performances in back-to-back weeks, making Mike Evans’ life harder on the outside. Additionally, Russell Gage has been bumped to the outside with the return of Godwin, a position he is widely inefficient at. While Julio Jones could also increase his snape share from 23%, adding another vertical threat to this offense should give us more opportunity over the middle. Godwin was officially removed from the injury report Friday, I’m excited to buy low on him in this good matchup against Atlanta.
