Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike WilliamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Mike Williams’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-129) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to garner 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be a more important option in his team’s air attack this week (24.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
- Mike Williams has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (91.0 per game).
- Mike Williams has been among the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a stellar 63.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (62.8%) to WRs this year (62.8%).
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
