Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for O.J. Howard from EV Insight

O.J. HowardReceiving Yards

Right now, O.J. Howard’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects O.J. Howard to total 4.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
O.J. Howard’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.8% to 55.4%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (69.2%) versus TEs since the start of last season (69.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has given their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards