Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 10/7)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays

Seattle ML +116 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The MLB postseason is officially here, and we have all four Wild Card matchups starting Friday. I cannot withhold my excitement, but I’m also amazed the MLB season is winding down. We still have an exciting month of baseball left, so let’s make the most of it. 

I am projecting the Seattle Mariners to steal Game 1 on the road in Toronto. My numbers have this game priced at both teams -110, so seeing Seattle at plus money leads me to believe there is value there. The Mariners won the regular season series against Toronto, and they need to do it again in the postseason. 

Seattle trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo has been electric since coming to Seattle and in the last month of the season. In September, Castillo had a 3.48 ERA, a .227 batting average against, a 2.99 FIP and a 1.13 WHIP. Seattle is 6-5 in his starts since the trade and 3-3 in his road starts. I expect Seattle to add another win to both of those categories. 

The Blue Jays’ offense is stout, but they have performed much better on the road. Also, when diving into the Blue Jay’s offensive numbers, it is evident that Toronto’s offense mashes mediocre and bad pitching but is frequently stymied by plus pitchers. Castillo is exactly that, and I think he can shut down the Blue Jay’s electric offense. 

On the flip side, Alek Manoah will make the start for Toronto. Manoah is coming off his first season and he was dynamite in 2022. This season, Manoah went 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA, a 3.35 FIP, and a .99 WHIP. He faced the Mariners in Seattle July 9 and allowed two runs on three hits in 7.1 innings in a loss. 

These are two of the younger, more exciting teams in baseball, and this should be one of the most fun series of the first round of the playoffs. I think Toronto is the better team overall, but Seattle actually matches up with them well. In a three-game series, if Seattle can steal Game 1 like I think they can, anything is possible. 

Considering my numbers, and the pitching matchup, I am riding the Mariners, and they are my favorite play on the slate today. 

Bet: Seattle ML +116 (FanDuel Sportsbook)