Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-110) after it opened @ 249.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 37.6 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Vikings are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 185.0 per game) against the Chicago Bears defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season (68.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
293
Passing Yards
293
Passing Yards
