Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+100) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 69.5 plays per game.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets have utilized some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.
Cons
- The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
