Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Patriots are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- Jakobi Meyers has run a route on 91.2% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to total 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
- Jakobi Meyers has compiled a colossal 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- Jakobi Meyers has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 138.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
