Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 270.5 (-125) after it opened @ 275.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.4 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.13 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
285
Passing Yards
285
Passing Yards
