Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Rams
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+105/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-140) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accrue 16.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team’s running game this week (56.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.6% in games he has played).
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
- Jeffery Wilson has grinded out 54.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (85th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.0 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has had the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding just 3.98 yards-per-carry.
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends profile as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
