Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 248.5 (-110) after it opened @ 258.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 71.6%.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line has afforded their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 209.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
274
Passing Yards
274
Passing Yards
