NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Cons
- Mike Evans has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 12th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
