WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Matt RyanPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-most yards in football (251.0 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Tennessee Titans pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 32.2 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards
222
Passing Yards
