Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-109).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.5% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accumulate 8.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman has accrued a colossal 76.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 67.0 yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Cons

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards