Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (+100) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a more integral piece of his team’s air attack this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.1% in games he has played).
Allen Lazard has been among the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging a terrific 9.41 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards