WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Ravens vs. Bills
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 8.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews has put up a whopping 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Mark Andrews has been among the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 83.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 5th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be a much smaller piece of his team’s pass game this week (29.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (39.0% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
