Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight

J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards

Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Cons

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 5th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per play.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in football (just 99 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards