Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Ravens vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-105) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 10.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Stefon Diggs has run fewer routes this season (77.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (87.9%).
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
