WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-118/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-118) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to garner 19.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Najee Harris has picked up 60.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
Cons
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this year (63.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Najee Harris’s running effectiveness (3.21 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (12th percentile among RBs).
- Najee Harris has been among the bottom running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.50 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
