Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-118/-112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-118) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to garner 19.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has picked up 60.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).

Cons

Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this year (63.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Najee Harris’s running effectiveness (3.21 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (12th percentile among RBs).
Najee Harris has been among the bottom running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.50 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards