Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-114) after it opened @ 206.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to attempt 37.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The New York Jets offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Zach Wilson has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 182.0 yards per game while ranking in the 18th percentile.
- Zach Wilson has been among the worst precision passers in football since the start of last season with a 56.0% Completion%, checking in at the 3rd percentile.
- Zach Wilson has been among the worst per-play QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.19 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 9th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards
235
Passing Yards
