Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 100.0% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to accrue 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Ja’Marr Chase has accrued a monstrous 108.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 7.34 yards-per-target compared to a 10.20 figure last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64.1%) to WRs since the start of last season (64.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards