Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Albert Okwuegbunam from EV Insight

Albert OkwuegbunamReceiving Yards

Right now, Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 25.5 (+100) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Albert Okwuegbunam has been among the top TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 85th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in football.
The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 81.7% to 72.1%.
Albert Okwuegbunam’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, compiling just 4.83 yards-per-target vs a 7.24 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards