Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Colts vs. Chiefs
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to earn 11.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
