Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-125) after it opened @ 46.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Tyler Higbee has run a route on 84.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 6.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Higbee has compiled a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.46 seconds per snap.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
- Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 67.0%.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 6.07 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
