Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Michael Carter from EV Insight

Michael CarterRushing Yards

Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 40.5 (-135) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Michael Carter has received 48.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Michael Carter has been among the leading running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.32 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 84th percentile.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 9th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards