NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Michael CarterRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 40.5 (-135) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Michael Carter has received 48.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Michael Carter has been among the leading running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.32 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 84th percentile.
- The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 9th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
