Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Titans vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 57.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 14.4 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 94 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
