Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Ryan Tannehill from EV Insight

Ryan TannehillPassing Yards

Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 316.5 yards (+929/-5004).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 316.5 (+929) after it opened @ 205.5 (-115).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
Ryan Tannehill has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.98 yards-per-target while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season (72.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 30.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Ryan Tannehill’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.5% to 59.5%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards