Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 21.3 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this year (92.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (81.0%).

Cons

Joe Mixon’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 2.90 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.09 rate last season.
Joe Mixon has been less successful in picking up extra running yardage this season, accumulating 1.98 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 mark last season.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards