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Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 3

Vikings vs. Lions

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 41.5 (-123) after it opened @ 38.5 (-130).

Pros

  • The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
  • THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 6.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
  • T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 45.6%.
  • T.J. Hockenson’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, compiling just 4.11 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 mark last year.
  • T.J. Hockenson has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 13th percentile.
  • The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (65.6%).

Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards

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