Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to earn 10.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- Justin Jefferson has put up a monstrous 126.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
106
Receiving Yards
106
Receiving Yards
